The Siege of Maduro: Consequences of Escalation between the United States and Venezuela

On September 4, 2024, the Venezuelan authorities announced the detention of a U.S. Navy serviceman, a move that underscored rising tensions between Venezuela and the United States. This event followed an announcement by U.S. authorities on September 2, 2024, that they had seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s plane in the Dominican Republic and transported it to Florida, claiming that it had been purchased in violation of U.S. sanctions. This plane seizure occurred amid ongoing domestic and international pressure on Maduro over the contested elections held in July, in which he claimed victory.

Critical Reasons

There are several key reasons behind the United States’ seizure of President Maduro’s plane:

U.S. Allegation of Sanctions Violation in Plane Purchase: The U.S. claimed that the plane was illegally purchased for $13 million, violating export control laws and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland stated, “The Department of Justice seized a plane that was illegally purchased for $13 million through a shell company and smuggled out of the U.S. for use by Maduro and his associates.” Earlier, Maduro and his partners had used a shell company based in the Caribbean to conceal their involvement in purchasing the plane from a company in Florida. The plane was transported from the U.S. to Venezuela via the Caribbean, in an attempt to circumvent an executive order prohibiting Americans from conducting business with Maduro’s regime. Venezuela accused the U.S. of “escalating aggression” after the contested presidential election in July.

Sending a Message That No One is Exempt from Sanctions: By seizing the plane, the U.S. aimed to send a message to the Venezuelan leadership that no one is above the law or U.S. sanctions. Matthew Axelrod, Assistant Secretary of Commerce, said, “Let this seizure send a clear message: aircraft illegally obtained from the U.S. for sanctioned Venezuelan officials cannot fly into the sunset.” This was a veiled threat from the U.S. urging Venezuela to comply with American sanctions.

Questioning the Venezuelan Presidential Election Results: The U.S. also seized the plane as part of its challenge to the legitimacy of the July presidential elections in Venezuela, accusing President Maduro of conducting a fraudulent election. Washington refused to acknowledge Maduro’s victory without examining detailed vote results. This refusal was prompted by internal protests in Venezuela against Maduro’s win, which left more than 27 people dead and at least 192 injured.

Venezuela’s Accusations of U.S. Military Bases in the Essequibo Region: Venezuela had previously accused the U.S. of secretly building military bases near its border in the oil-rich Essequibo region, which belongs to Guyana. Maduro described this as “aggression and preparation for escalation against Venezuela.” Venezuela had earlier asserted its claim over the region, but the U.S. denied these accusations, stating that it had no plans to establish a secret military base there.

Venezuelan Claims of U.S.-Backed Coup Attempts: President Maduro accused the U.S. of being behind an attempted coup in Venezuela, linked to the protests over the election results. At a press conference on August 30, he alleged that the U.S. was trying to repeat the events of 2019, when it refused to recognize his presidency and acknowledged opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president. Maduro urged Venezuelans not to be swayed by the U.S.-backed coup attempt.

Potential Consequences

The U.S. seizure of President Maduro’s plane in the Dominican Republic could lead to several consequences, including:

Increased Tension Between the U.S. and Venezuela: The seizure is likely to escalate tensions between the two countries, as evidenced by Venezuela accusing the U.S. of criminal behavior, calling the act “piracy” right after the plane was confiscated. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry stated, “The U.S. has again committed a recurring criminal act that can only be described as piracy by illegally seizing a plane used by the President of the Republic.” It added that the U.S. had repeatedly used its economic and military power to intimidate and pressure countries like the Dominican Republic to become complicit in its crimes.

Venezuelan Retaliation Against the U.S.: Venezuela may take concrete steps in response to Washington’s seizure of Maduro’s plane, potentially increasing pressure on the U.S. For example, Venezuela could detain American citizens as bargaining chips. On September 4, the Pentagon announced that a U.S. Navy serviceman had been arrested in Venezuela after traveling there without official authorization. Reports indicated that he had been detained since August 30, 2024.

More U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela: The U.S. might impose additional sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors, similar to recent actions taken in response to Maduro’s failure to allow free and competitive elections. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, accounting for about 17% of global reserves in 2023, making it a major oil producer. The U.S. is preparing to impose 15 individual sanctions on Venezuelan ministers close to Maduro, accusing them of obstructing free and fair elections.

A Diplomatic Crisis Between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic: The U.S. seizure of Maduro’s plane in the Dominican Republic and its subsequent transport to Florida could spark a major diplomatic crisis between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Venezuela is likely to believe that the Dominican Republic assisted Washington in seizing the plane. In response, the Dominican Republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement denying involvement in the investigation regarding the plane, which had been on its territory for several months for maintenance purposes only.

Venezuela’s Suspension of Flights to Certain Countries: Amid the U.S. escalation against Venezuela, Caracas announced the extension of a suspension on commercial flights between Venezuela and several countries, including Panama, Peru, and the Dominican Republic, until September 30, 2024. These countries, like the U.S., refused to recognize Maduro as president, questioning the fairness of the elections. Venezuela may extend this flight suspension further if these countries do not reverse their decisions.

Encouraging the European Union’s Non-Recognition of Maduro: The ongoing U.S. escalation could lead the European Union to officially declare that it does not recognize Maduro as president. The EU has already rejected the July election results, with many in Europe feeling that attempts to foster democracy in Venezuela have failed, as evidenced by the recent presidential elections.

Escalating Tensions

In conclusion, the U.S. seizure of President Maduro’s plane will likely increase tensions between the two countries. Venezuela is expected to take various legal actions to address the harm caused by U.S. policies, which may prompt Washington to intensify its economic sanctions, further escalating pressure on Caracas.

SAKHRI Mohamed
SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and International Relations in addition to a Master's degree in International Security Studies. Alongside this, I have a passion for web development. During my studies, I acquired a strong understanding of fundamental political concepts and theories in international relations, security studies, and strategic studies.

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