The South China Sea is witnessing regional disputes between several countries over the sovereignty of some islands, and it is likely that tension in the region will escalate due to China’s expansion of its maritime land reclamation strategy there, in addition to fears that it will expand its air defense field to affect the status of the disputed islands.
The South China Sea is an arena for a territorial dispute between several countries that dispute sovereignty over different parts of it, and tensions in it have escalated in an unprecedented manner during the past year (2021) against the backdrop of China’s reclamation of marine lands there, based on its expansionist policy, which it calls “the line of sectors.” the nine”; This led to a radical change in the status quo in the region. Although other countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, follow the same Chinese approach in this region, they are not moving at the same rapid pace of construction and do not have the same armament desire that China possesses, especially since the latter’s trends may make the South China Sea a hotbed of explosive conflict. .
an introduction
The South China Sea has constituted a major crisis over the past few years, and the situation in this region has threatened to turn into a conflict zone, in light of the failure to intervene to stop this imminent danger. Half of the world’s merchant ships, and the value of the goods carried by these ships is estimated at more than $5 trillion annually, a value equal to more than the GDP of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) combined (1). This region is witnessing a number of intersecting regional conflicts in light of the disputed sovereignty between many countries. In addition to the expansionist claims of China, there are other countries that have the same territorial and judicial claims to sovereignty over this region, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The existing disputes in the South China Sea are not limited to the right to exploit resources, but there is a real concern on the part of the United States of America and the conflicting countries about China’s attempts to restrict freedom of navigation in the region without taking into account the restrictions set by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Land reclamation and freedom of navigation
Tensions in the South China Sea escalated significantly during the past year, 2015, in light of China’s attempts to change the status quo in the region by building islands and land reclamation on a large scale. Beijing embarked on the implementation of this strategy (land reclamation) in an accelerated manner; This prompted the United States to change the way it dealt with the South China Sea file and sought to obtain a multilateral diplomatic resolution for this crisis.
The creation of artificial islands in the “Spratly” islands led China to enter into a comprehensive confrontation with the United States, during which the latter accused it of trying to impose its effective control over the disputed islands. US President Barack Obama has clearly evaluated Beijing’s land reclamation strategy, saying: “Our concern about what China is doing stems necessarily from its non-compliance with international laws and norms, and its attempt to extend its power and flex its muscles to force some countries to submit and surrender” (2) . In more frank terms, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Harry Harris, confirmed Obama’s statements by saying: “China is using land reclamation to build a ‘Great Wall of Sand’ in the disputed areas of the South China Sea using excavators and bulldozers” (3) .
This crisis has reached a critical point in light of the upcoming decision of the United Nations-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration, which is studying a case brought by the Philippines against China claiming Manila’s right to exploit natural resources in the exclusive economic zone extending in the areas it claims sovereignty over in the South China Sea. The court’s decision, in addition to the Philippine presidential elections, which produced a new president, Rodrigo Duterte, will constitute a de-escalation of the conflict in the coming months, as Duterte has expressed his desire to enter into bilateral and direct negotiations with Beijing on this particular crisis, This is a completely different position from that of his predecessor, who was adopting the approach of cooperation with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in confronting China.
In reaction to China’s accelerated land reclamation work prior to any decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, Washington is pressing ahead with freedom of navigation operations on the islands and areas in dispute; This infuriates China, which has the greatest claim to sovereignty over that region. Moreover, there is little possibility that China will reduce the pace of its expansion and claim its sovereignty over more territory, and instead seeks to consolidate its presence in those areas by implementing continuous operations to build more infrastructure on the most important islands that it claims Its dependencies are like the Mischief and Ferry reefs located on the Spratly Island.
The United States is leading a loose alliance with its regional allies in an attempt to strengthen commitment and halt Beijing’s efforts to change the status quo on the disputed islands, especially since the United States has a joint defense agreement with the Philippines, which is an original party to the conflict with China and a strong ally of the United States at the same time. .
The reasons for the recent tension in the South China Sea region over the past months are attributed to the land reclamation and construction activities carried out by China in the territories under its control in the disputed “Spratly” islands between China and the Philippines, especially since a set of high-resolution photos were taken of these Satellite activities for the purpose of documentation.
For its part, the International Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) has published several photos documenting the dates of the expansion and infrastructure construction works that Beijing is rapidly implementing on the beaches adjacent to the Mischief Reef and many other coral reefs in the Spratly Islands. In addition to the legal consequences that China will face due to these expansionist activities, all allies and partners in the region are closely watching how Washington will deal with this crisis.
The relationship between China and the Philippines has reached a critical juncture with regard to the dispute between the two countries over sovereignty in the South China Sea. no. The Manila lawsuit is based on the refutation of Beijing’s claims to sovereignty over the South China Sea in accordance with Article (287) and Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, an agreement signed by China and the Philippines.
Armament and Air Defense Identification Area
Although China may continue to implement land reclamation projects over the coming months, another move is looming. These projects could provide an opportunity for Beijing to use other tools to impose its influence on the South China Sea, such as long-range radar and advanced missile systems. , before you finally need to use the planes. Here, we point out that China has already completed the creation of an area of land to be used as an airstrip near the “Ferry” reef whose sovereignty is disputed between the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan, without any regard for the protests of Washington and its allies and partners, and there is no doubt that these developments contribute to changing The current status of the region, as it would allow Beijing to impose its control over the airspace in the areas and islands in dispute.
Specifically, the moves made by Beijing to declare an air defense identification zone are established by it only, which will force all aircraft that use this airspace to abide by a set of rules, such as: determining the flight path, and the use of remote transmitters, transmitters and radio communication To communicate with the Chinese authorities, knowing that there were reports issued last year, 2015, indicating that a number of Chinese defense officials had begun to develop plans related to the Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea, but Beijing was quick to deny what was stated in this report as She stressed that “the Chinese side does not feel any threat to its air security from Southeast Asian countries, and that it looks optimistically at its relations with neighboring countries and the general situation in the South China Sea region.”
Nevertheless, China is fully aware that it has the right to impose an air defense identification zone in its sovereign territory whenever it wants. China keeps this card in its sleeve to use in the event of an escalation of tension in the region or when it senses any danger or threat to its sovereignty. To intensify the threat to those countries.
In the event that China takes this step, it will not come as a surprise to any party in the region, given China’s precedent in this field. In November 2013, Beijing took a unilateral decision to declare an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea, which covers the area The airspace of a large area of land, including the Senkaku Islands, which were under the control and administration of Japan, and China made this announcement despite Japan’s announcement of the same earlier. As the declared air defense zone extends to the Eodo Reef, which is disputed by China and South Korea, this has fueled tension in that area. Japan and the United States strongly condemned the move taken by China at the time, considering it a provocative act.
The question now is: Can China declare an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea in the near future?
This decision is still among the political options on the table in Beijing, and there is no doubt that taking such a decision will lead to a violent diplomatic reaction by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as by the United States, and it is not excluded that China will take this decision in any This year, especially in light of the upcoming decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration not to recognize the land reclamation activities carried out by China.
In this context, Admiral Samuel LeClair, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told Congress last year, 2015 that China’s land reclamation work allows it to extend its influence more over a currently contested area, and that it could constitute Basically, it proceeds from creating the air defense identification zone if it so desires, “and this gray area gives China the option and leverage to enforce the air defense identification zone without any fear or concern of diplomatic consequences.”
It should be noted that there are real fears that the aim of China’s move in this direction by following coercive methods and a fait accompli is to restrict freedom of navigation over the South China Sea, and perhaps that is what prompted the US Department of Defense to accuse China in early June 2016 of making an objection. Unsafe” for a military reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea. And China had deployed fighter planes at the beginning of the month referred to also against the backdrop of the United States carrying out freedom of navigation operations on one of the disputed Chinese islands in the South China Sea (4) .
Conclusion
It is expected that the South China Sea region will witness a continuous state of volatility and instability over the coming months, for reasons including: the increasing tension between China and the countries competing with it for sovereignty in the region such as the Philippines and Vietnam, and most importantly, the state of the increasing strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. In general, the way the United States, which is about to hold a presidential election, and China deal with this dispute, will determine the extent to which the two countries are able to reduce the risks and the possibilities of unintended clashes in the near future.
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Jonathan Berkshire Miller is a researcher specializing in East Asian studies at the Center for East and West Studies.
Note : The text was prepared in English for Al Jazeera Center for Studies
REFERENCES
1- Bonnie Glaser, “Armed Clash in the South China Sea,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 2012.
http://www.cfr.org/world/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883
2- Matt Spetalnick and Ben Blanchard, “Obama Says Concerned China Bullying Others in South China Sea,” Reuters, April 10, 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-obama-china-idUSKBN0N02HT20150410
3- “Balancing China’s Great Wall of Sand,” American Interest, March, 2015.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/03/31/balancing-on-chinas-great-wall-of-sand/
4- Idress Ali and Megha Rajagopalan, “Chinese jets intercept US military plane over South China Sea: Pentagon,” Reuters, May 19, 2016.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-south-china-sea-idUSKCN0Y92ZA
