Threat of “Al-Shabaab”: Implications of Continued Terrorist Activities in Kenya

Kenya is one of the East African countries affected by cross-border threats and terrorist activities. This is evident from the explosion of an explosive device in the town of “Elwak” in Mandera County, northern Kenya, on April 29, 2024. This area is highly susceptible to attacks by the militant group Al-Shabaab, suspected of executing this attack in retaliation for Kenya’s military support to national and multilateral efforts under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The incident resulted in at least 12 fatalities, including locals, teachers, nurses, and police officers. The recent terrorist activities in Kenya can be understood through several influential dimensions and motivating factors.

Key Dimensions

Several key dimensions influence the reality of terrorist activity in Kenya, which include:

1. Historical Activity of Al-Qaeda in Kenya: Kenya is one of the most targeted countries by this organization. The U.S. Department of State has confirmed that Al-Qaeda cells have been operating in Kenya since 1995 and that the organization has developed commercial activities in Kenya to import diamonds. The first attack by Al-Qaeda in Kenya occurred in August 1998, with the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Nairobi.
2. Increasing Threats from Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab is a significant actor in executing terrorist operations in Kenya. This group operates primarily in East Africa, with a significant presence in Somalia. Kenya has faced numerous attacks by Al-Shabaab since the Kenya Defence Forces entered Somalia in 2011. In 2023 alone, the group carried out approximately 37 violent attacks, targeting civilians in 11 of these incidents and security forces in 26.
3. Kenya’s Ranking in Global Terrorism Index: Kenya ranks 18th globally according to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index, placing it among the countries with moderate impact from terrorist threats. However, the threat from Al-Shabaab remains significant, with the group causing approximately 499 deaths, of which 14% occurred in Kenya and 86% in Somalia.
4. Kenya’s Participation in Regional Anti-Terrorism Operations: Kenya is an active supporter of anti-terrorism operations under the African Union. It has supported the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its successor, ATMIS, contributing primarily through military means to weaken Al-Shabaab and other terrorist groups.
5. Ethnic Marginalization and Terrorism: Ethnic exclusion and marginalization serve as catalysts for terrorist recruitment. Ethnic minorities like the Nubians and Somalis face challenges in obtaining citizenship documents, and other linguistic minorities face the threat of language extinction. Additionally, the Kikuyu group, making up about 22% of the population, dominates political life, marginalizing other ethnic groups.
6. Exploitation of Kenya’s Relations with the U.S. and Israel by Al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda views U.S. support for Kenya as a major obstacle to establishing an Islamic global order. Kenya is a significant recipient of U.S. anti-terrorism aid and maintains close ties with Israel, which terrorist groups use to justify their activities against Kenya.
7. Emergence of Separatist Tendencies: The call for secession by Muslim populations in Kenya’s coastal region, claiming historical legal separation from Kenya, highlights economic and political marginalization. High poverty and illiteracy rates in Muslim-dominated areas draw unemployed Muslim youth towards extremist groups like Al-Shabaab.

Potential Consequences

The growth of terrorist activities in Kenya could lead to several potential consequences:

1. Negative Impact on Tourism: Terrorist operations could adversely affect Kenya’s tourism sector, which contributes about 9.3% to the GDP and employs around 8.7% of the total workforce. The sector generated $2.7 billion in revenue in 2023, a 32% increase from the previous year.
2. Increased Security Budget: The Kenyan government has significantly increased the budget for internal security from approximately KSh 177.8 billion in 2022/2023 to KSh 338.2 billion in 2023/2024, to enhance the Ministry of Defense’s capabilities in recruitment, intelligence gathering, and security training programs.
3. Influence of Regional Instabilities: Kenya’s national efforts to combat terrorism might strain its military capabilities, potentially weakening its control over regional borders, especially given the unstable internal conditions in neighboring countries like Uganda, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.

In conclusion, Kenya is significantly impacted by terrorist activities, particularly those associated with Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda. This situation has necessitated prioritizing anti-terrorism measures within national policy agendas, influencing Kenya’s involvement in various regional multilateral initiatives under the African Union’s framework.