Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off for the first time in a debate airing on ABC from Tuesday night, September 10, into Wednesday, September 11.
U.S. Presidential Race — With two months remaining until the U.S. presidential election, the suspense is palpable. Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal in mid-summer, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are now tied, according to polls released Sunday, September 8.
After Biden, 81, stumbled badly in a disastrous debate in late June, Kamala Harris managed to reignite her party’s momentum, giving new hope to voters who feared the return of Trump, a businessman entangled in legal issues, to the White House.
But the latest poll by The New York Times and Siena College has dampened Democratic hopes somewhat. Conducted between September 3 and 6, the survey shows Trump leading Harris by one percentage point nationally (48% to 47%).
Too Few Polls to Draw Firm Conclusions
An Ipsos/Reuters poll from late August gave Harris 45% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 41%. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight still places Harris in the lead, with 47.1% to Trump’s 44.3%. But is the momentum already slipping?
The New York Times journalist Nate Cohn suggests reasons why Trump may be gaining ground in the Siena College poll. The first is that Harris experienced a significant surge when Biden dropped out of the race, a “honeymoon period” that lasted until the Democratic convention in late August, where she received overwhelming support from her party.
Since mid-August, Cohn notes, fewer polls have been conducted, partly due to the Labor Day holiday on September 2, which may have obscured Trump’s comeback. Additionally, polling firms may be holding off until after the September 10 debate between the two candidates, contributing to the lack of data.
Will this much-anticipated debate dramatically shift the race? It will be Harris’s first appearance on a debate stage since the 2020 election, when she faced off against then-Republican Vice President Mike Pence. Trump, meanwhile, did not emerge weakened from his debate against Biden, despite the president’s poor performance. The upcoming debate is expected to focus more on the candidates’ demeanor than on the substance of their answers.
Key Swing States Under Close Scrutiny
National poll numbers may not tell the whole story, as the race will likely come down to a handful of key swing states. Here, too, suspense abounds, according to Siena College: Harris slightly edges Trump in Wisconsin (50% to 47%), Michigan (49% to 47%), and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied (48%) in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
A CBS News/YouGov poll shows similarly close races in Michigan (50% to 49% for Harris), Wisconsin (51% to 49%), and Pennsylvania (50% to 50%). Although Harris appears to have a slight edge, the margins are so tight and within the margin of error that it’s impossible to draw conclusions at this stage.
Analyst Nate Silver warns that Harris is losing momentum in the swing states. Between August 19 (during the Democratic convention) and September 6, Republicans gained ground, according to his data. Silver also highlights a scenario that could cause concern for Democrats: if the vote gap between Harris and Trump in key states is narrow but favors Republicans, Harris could win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.
The Trap of the Popular Vote and the Electoral College
To understand this potential discrepancy, we need to revisit the U.S. Constitution. The presidential election is not decided by direct popular vote but by an electoral college. Americans vote for electors who then choose the president. The twist: the candidate who wins the most votes in a state wins all of that state’s electors.
For example, Texas has 40 electors. If 49% of Texans vote Democrat and 51% vote Republican, all 40 electors go to Trump, and the votes for Harris no longer count.
This explains how, as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, a candidate can win more popular votes but lose the election. Nate Silver cautions that for Harris to ensure victory in 2024, she will need to win the popular vote by a margin of 4 points. That is far from guaranteed.
