All the opinion polls conducted in France since President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9, 2024, show the far-right party, known as the “National Rally,” leading the voters’ intentions for the early legislative elections, with the first round starting on June 30, 2024. Some new polls even give this party 35% of the votes, higher than what it received in the last European elections (31.4%). Justifying the decision, which some see as facilitating the far-right’s rise to power in 2024, Macron stated that such a move is to prevent them from reaching the Élysée in 2027. Later, responding to Marine Le Pen’s demand for his resignation if her party wins, Macron announced in a message to the French on June 23, 2024, that he would stay with them until the end of his term, opening the door to many scenarios for governing France in the subsequent phase.
Political Support
Several factors enhance the chances of the far-right winning the upcoming French legislative elections:
Increased Support Across Genders:
Studies on the voting behavior of French voters during the last European elections attribute the progress of Jordan Bardella’s (far-right) list to a surge in female voter support. While Bardella’s list won 28% of the male vote and 19% of the female vote in the 2019 European elections (a 9-point gap), the June 9, 2024, results showed equal support between genders, with a 13-point increase among female voters (only a 3-point increase among male voters). Women’s votes are crucial in France, as they make up almost half of the electoral body and are evenly distributed across different electoral districts. This progress is due to Marine Le Pen’s strategy over the years, focusing on addressing women’s concerns, highlighting the difficulties women face in some neighborhoods. Bardella also emphasized gender equality and women’s freedom in France in his campaign leading up to the European elections.
Far-Right’s Voter Mobilization Strategy:
The far-right has successfully executed intensive strategies to attract voters, urging those close to their ideology to vote for National Rally candidates from the first round on June 30. Bardella announced that he would refuse to form a government unless his party won an absolute majority (289 seats or more out of 577). The National Rally also attracted Marion Maréchal, who joined them after leaving the far-right “Reconquest” party led by Eric Zemmour, leading to a drop in support for Zemmour’s party to 2% for the upcoming legislative elections (down from 5.5% in the last European elections).
Far-Right Dominance in Peripheral Areas:
The European election results showed the National Rally’s dominance in rural areas and small to medium-sized cities, while their presence weakened in major cities. For instance, Bardella’s list received only 8.5% in Paris, despite 31.4% nationally (9.4% in Rennes, 11.1% in Nantes, and 12.8% in Bordeaux). This disparity highlights a social gap between two types of France, which has become more pronounced than in previous years.
Appeal to the Less Educated:
Bardella’s success in gaining 2,479,000 additional votes compared to the 2019 elections (an 8-point increase over five years) is partly due to increased support among less-educated voters. French intellectual Emmanuel Todd describes this as a new educational class divide, intertwined with a geographic divide (center vs. periphery). Despite the main leftist lists still dominating among highly educated youth, Bardella attracts votes from less-educated young people like himself.
Shift to Conviction Voting:
Macron believes that not all 31% of the French who voted for the National Rally in the European elections are far-right supporters and that this high result reflects protest votes due to France’s ongoing circumstances. However, many analyses argue that voting for the National Rally now stems from a genuine belief in their ideas. This party has successfully resonated with a broad spectrum of French society by addressing their political concerns and issues, such as enhancing purchasing power and immigration, which are critical for many voters.
Obstacles to Far-Right Victory
However, several factors could hinder the far-right’s chances:
Unified Left-Wing Front: After the National Rally’s success in the European elections, a significant left-wing coalition, the New People’s Front (NFP), was formed, including the Socialist Party, France Unbowed, the Communist Party, and the Greens. This coalition has risen in the polls from 23% to 28.5%. Prominent left-wing figures, like former President François Hollande, have returned to the political scene, focusing on swing districts.
Splintering of the Republican Right: Republican Party leader Éric Ciotti announced a surprising alliance with the National Rally on June 11, which many party leaders opposed, leading to his removal. Despite this, Ciotti continued the alliance, incorporating 69 of his supporters into National Rally-backed lists, primarily in districts dominated by the presidential majority close to Macron.
Challenges in Managing the Second Round: To win in the first round on June 30, a candidate must secure 50% of the votes cast and 25% of registered voters. If not, all candidates surpassing 12.5% of registered voters proceed to the second round on July 7. High voter turnout could lead to more triangular races, theoretically benefiting the far-right as opposing votes would be split between two candidates. Some left-wing voices are calling for unified support behind a single candidate to counter the National Rally.
Increased Voter Turnout: Between June 10 and 25, 1.3 million proxy voting requests were made, six times more than in the 2022 legislative elections. Participation is expected to reach a record 63%, compared to 48% in 2022. Analysts are divided on whether this will favor the National Rally or those opposing their rise to power.
Attractive Programs from Competing Forces: Competing parties must not only mobilize their base but also attract new voters and those who previously abstained. The left-wing coalition has included popular proposals, such as raising the minimum wage to €1,600 per month and repealing the 2023 pension reform, to appeal to a broader electorate.
In conclusion, while the left’s unity and the Republicans’ fragmentation challenge Macron’s plans and despite the far-right’s leading poll position, the distribution of votes, participation rates, and second-round withdrawals will significantly influence whether the far-right achieves an absolute or relative majority.
