What are the implications of the UK’s decision to suspend some arms export licenses to Israel? (Starmer’s calculations)

As the anniversary of Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack approaches and Israeli military operations in Gaza continue, the British government, like many others worldwide, has expressed growing concern over the ongoing war and its rising toll on Gaza’s civilians.

As a result, on September 2, 2024, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced in the House of Commons that the UK had immediately suspended some arms export licenses to Israel. This decision, which comes as Western nations increasingly urge Israel to seek a ceasefire, reflects a shift in the UK’s stance toward Israel and its approach to the Gaza war. The move also seeks to limit British arms sales to Israel, with estimates suggesting that the UK government issued over 100 new licenses allowing British companies to sell arms to Israel between October 2023 and May 2024.

Limited Action

Under the partial ban, the UK suspended 30 out of around 350 arms export licenses to Israel. The decision followed a review by the newly elected Labour government, led by Starmer, which highlighted a “clear risk” that these weapons could be used in violation of international humanitarian law in the Gaza war. The ban includes arms that could be used in the current conflict, such as components for fighter jets, helicopters, and drones. However, it does not cover components for F-35 aircraft, meaning it’s not a comprehensive arms embargo.

Although Britain sends relatively few weapons to Israel compared to major suppliers like the U.S. and Germany, British Defense Minister John Healy reassured Israel that it would continue to receive UK support if attacked.

Lammy clarified that the suspension would have no significant impact on Israel’s security and promised to keep working with Israel to counter Iranian threats. He also emphasized that the ban was not a judgment on whether Israel had violated international law, but rather a “forward-looking assessment.”

It appears that the UK has carefully calibrated its approach to reassure Israel and ensure that the partial ban does not significantly affect Israel’s defense capabilities, even though British exports account for less than 1% of the weapons Israel receives. The UK will still allow the export of equipment used in submarines and training, showing that the ban is designed to address specific concerns without broadly affecting Israel’s defenses.

Key Drivers

Several core factors have led the Starmer-led UK government to suspend some arms licenses to Israel to ensure that arms sales comply with international law. These factors can be summarized as follows:

Desire to Comply with International Law: After Labour’s victory in the July 2024 elections, Lammy announced his decision to update the review of arms sales to Israel, a UK ally, to ensure they comply with international law and to stop the human rights abuses Israel is accused of committing in Gaza. Upon completing the internal review, which lasted two months, the British government criticized Israel’s handling of detainees and its failure to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza. Despite Britain’s acknowledgment of Israel’s need to defend itself from security threats, the UK government expressed serious concerns over Israel’s tactics in Gaza and the reports of civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure.

Following the Lead of Other Western Nations: In March 2024, Canada announced it would not approve any new arms export permits to Israel, and the freeze would continue until Ottawa could ensure that the weapons were used in compliance with Canadian law. Similarly, Spain halted all arms sales and exports to Israel. Meanwhile, the Hague Court of Appeals in the Netherlands ordered a halt to the export of parts for Dutch F-35 fighters to Israel in February 2024 to avoid violating international humanitarian law in Gaza.

Domestic Pressure from Supporters Regarding Relations with Israel: Prime Minister Starmer, a former human rights lawyer and public prosecutor, faced pressure from some of his supporters to reassess the government’s military ties with Israel. Many voices called for Starmer to speak out more forcefully against the rising civilian death toll in Gaza and to criticize Israel more openly. Polls show that the majority of Britons want their government to halt all arms exports to Israel. A YouGov poll in late July 2024 found that more than 50% of Britons supported the decision, with only 13% opposing it. Another poll showed that British support for a ceasefire in Gaza was growing significantly, with 74% backing such measures, and 58% supporting an arms embargo on Israel. Thousands of Britons participated in protests over several months, demanding restrictions on arms sales to Israel. Within weeks of taking office in early July 2024, Prime Minister Starmer abandoned previous Conservative-backed plans to oppose the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s efforts to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. His government also resumed funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

Boosting Government Popularity with Muslim Voters: Despite Labour’s landslide victory, the party faced significant setbacks in Muslim-majority areas and was under pressure from some lawmakers to take a tougher stance on Israel regarding the conflict. The Labour Party has long relied on the support of Muslim voters and other minorities. In constituencies where more than 10% of the population identifies as Muslim, Labour saw a 10-point drop in its vote share.

Calls from MPs for a Ban on Arms Sales to Israel: In March 2024, over 130 British MPs, including opposition members and peers in the House of Lords, sent a letter to Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch. They urged immediate action to suspend arms export licenses to Israel, citing the devastation caused by the war in Gaza, including the destruction of 80% of its civilian infrastructure and the ongoing threat of famine in the region.

Key Reflections

The British government’s decision to ban certain arms licenses to Israel has led to several significant consequences, as follows:

Accusations Against the Labour Party for Supporting Hamas: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party accused the Labour Party of abandoning Israel, questioning whether the Starmer government wants Hamas to win the war in Gaza. Britain’s Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis stated on social media that it was inconceivable for the British government — a close strategic ally of Israel — to suspend some arms licenses, adding that the move would support baseless claims that Israel is violating international humanitarian law. He also argued that the decision would neither help secure the release of remaining hostages nor contribute to a peaceful future. The President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, Phil Rosenberg, criticized the government’s decision, describing it as sending a “horrific message” to Israel. Similarly, Conservative members, including Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell, criticized the decision. Mitchell stated, “This move appears aimed at appeasing the Labour Party’s backbenchers while not offending our ally Israel in the Middle East.”

Israel Rejects the British Decision: Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz expressed disappointment, stating that the decision sends a confusing message to Hamas and its Iranian supporters. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also criticized the decision. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the British government, calling the decision a “shameful” step that would not deter Israel but encourage Hamas. Netanyahu emphasized that the decision would not change Israel’s determination to defeat Hamas, which brutally killed 1,200 people on October 7, 2023, including 14 British citizens. He stressed that Israel is at war to protect British hostages, with Hamas holding more than 100 hostages, including five British citizens.

Increased Western Pressure on Israel: Recently, European countries have attempted to pressure Israel to end the conflict in Gaza due to demands from their citizens for a firm stance against Israeli violations of Palestinian rights. Although the UK sends fewer weapons to Israel compared to major suppliers like the U.S. and Germany, this decision reflects a notable shift in diplomatic support. For example, British arms sales to Israel in 2022 amounted to around £42 million. Reports from June 2024 indicated that the U.S. has provided Israel with over $6 billion in “security assistance” since October 7, 2023, while Germany’s arms exports to Israel in 2023 amounted to around $355 million, making it Israel’s second-largest arms supplier. Some observers predict that Britain’s move could prompt other countries to follow suit, increasing pressure on the Israeli government. Niv Gordon, a professor of law and human rights at Queen Mary University of London, suggested that when a key ally like Britain takes such steps, it could affect Israel’s international reputation and have a “domino effect” on other allies.

Potential Worsening of European Divisions Over Israel: In April 2024, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution calling for Israel to be held accountable for potential “war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.” The resolution passed with 28 votes in favor, 13 abstentions, and six votes against, including from the U.S. and Germany. Germany insists on supporting Israel. In July 2024, the German parliament voted in favor of a law banning the inverted “red triangle” symbol used by Hamas’s military wing, Al-Qassam Brigades, in videos identifying Israeli targets. Thus, Starmer’s government decision could further deepen European divisions on how to deal with Israel.

Possible Impact on U.S.-UK Relations: A Washington source revealed that the U.S. privately warned Britain against the arms ban, arguing that it could harm efforts to broker a ceasefire and negotiate a swap deal. The continued enforcement of the ban under either of the U.S. presidential candidates — especially with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris opposing any arms ban — could place additional pressure on the future White House administration in handling both European allies and Israel.

Human Rights Criticism of the Limited British Restrictions: Amnesty International UK’s Chief Executive Sacha Deshmukh criticized the restrictions as “very limited and full of loopholes.” Amnesty has consistently called for a ceasefire and for allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza. Similarly, Human Rights Watch described the decision as not going far enough, reflecting the efforts of these organizations to expand the scope of the arms embargo on Israel.

Calls by British MPs for a Comprehensive Arms Ban: Following the British government’s decision to ban arms, five members of the House of Commons, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, announced that they had formed a parliamentary group called the “Independent Alliance,” which will focus on issues like austerity policies, social care, and arms sales to Israel. There has been a long-standing call for an immediate and comprehensive halt to arms sales to Israel. The alliance’s statement emphasized the need to ban parts for Israeli F-35 fighter jets used in the Gaza war and affirmed continued advocacy for a total arms embargo, an end to the illegal occupation and settlement policies, and immediate and unconditional recognition of the Palestinian state.

War Trajectory

Finally, it is unlikely that the Starmer government’s decision — despite its political symbolism — will significantly affect the course of the Israeli war in Gaza due to two main considerations. First, British exports represent less than 1% of the total weapons received by Israel, rendering them relatively insignificant. Second, Israel enjoys consistent support from the U.S., whether from the current administration under Joe Biden or the winner of the upcoming November 2024 presidential election. Both candidates — Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump — have affirmed unwavering U.S. support for Israel.

SAKHRI Mohamed
SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and International Relations in addition to a Master's degree in International Security Studies. Alongside this, I have a passion for web development. During my studies, I acquired a strong understanding of fundamental political concepts and theories in international relations, security studies, and strategic studies.

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