What are the messages of Tehran and Moscow to Western countries after Biden’s tour ?

Iran hosted the seventh meeting of the guarantor states of the Astana Process, on July 19; In which Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, Russian Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan participated in it; The final statement affirmed “the continuation of cooperation between the three countries to eliminate all terrorists, and the leading role of the Astana process in the peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis.” Bilateral meetings were also held between the Iranian president and the Russian and Turkish presidents, who also met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

cross targets

It can be said that Russia and Iran sought, through the summit and the bilateral meetings that followed, to send direct messages that can be summarized as follows:

1- Facing international isolation due to the Ukraine war: From the beginning, Russia deliberately promoted and exaggerated the visit as a message to Western countries that it does not suffer from the isolation imposed by Western countries because of the Russian war in Ukraine. Here, it was remarkable that Russia focused on that this is President Putin’s second visit abroad, after the visit he made to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan; Where he participated in the Caspian Sea Summit, which was held in Ashgabat on June 28.

Russian officials began to promote that the Russian president will conduct foreign tours next fall; On July 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that President Putin has plans to conduct other visits after Iran, and that arrangements for these visits are still underway, without specifying which countries he will visit. It was remarkable that the United States of America considered that the visit revealed the opposite, and made it clear that Russia suffers from isolation at the international level. On July 19, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the Russian president’s visit to Iran demonstrates the extent of the isolation that Russia has become after its invasion of Ukraine.

2- Devoting the policy of “alternative options”: Iran was keen to invest the visit in order to confirm its success in expanding the range of options available to it at the international level, even despite the sanctions imposed by the United States of America and the tension that began to characterize its relations with European countries. The most prominent indication of this was the signing of a huge deal by the National Iranian Oil Company with the Russian “Gazprom” company, amounting to 40 billion dollars, on the sidelines of Putin’s visit. Six oil fields, the exchange of gas and products, the completion of liquefied natural gas projects, and the construction of pipelines to export gas.

Here, Tehran’s message is clear that it does not rely too much on reaching a nuclear agreement with Western countries – especially the United States of America – that could allow the lifting of US sanctions imposed on it and the return of foreign companies, and Western companies in particular, to invest in them. Iran had been hit hard by foreign companies that rushed to exit the Iranian market following the imposition of US sanctions starting on August 7, 2018, against the backdrop of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement. The French company “Total” was one of the main Western companies that took this step; It withdrew from the project to develop the eleventh phase of the South Pars field, on August 20, 2018, in which it was participating with the Chinese company “CNBC” and “Petro Pars” of Iran, with a value of 4.8 billion dollars.

3- Proving the ability to attract Washington’s allies: Although holding discussions on the Syrian file, especially with regard to the military operation that Turkey threatens to launch in northeastern Syria, was the main title of the tripartite summit held in Tehran, this does not negate that one of the other goals of engaging Turkey at the summit is about confirming the ability to attract Washington’s regional and international allies, while exploiting the outstanding differences between the latter and these allies.

But here, the accounts remain divergent between Tehran and Moscow. For the first, the issue is inseparable from an attempt to emphasize the difficulties facing Washington’s efforts to formulate new security arrangements in the Middle East that are hostile to Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions. As Iran was keen to promote that many of the countries that were candidates to join such arrangements are in fact establishing strong relations with them, in a way that would not push them to engage in such arrangements.

If Turkey was absent from the Jeddah summit, in which US President Joe Biden and the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq participated, this does not negate the importance of its position within the framework of any security arrangements in the region, first in light of its interest in that region, and secondly as one of the countries Thirdly, in the context of its strong relations with Israel, on the security level, which was reflected in the controversy that escalated in the past period about its cooperation with Tel Aviv in dismantling Iranian cells that aimed to liquidate some Israelis in Turkey. He arrives at Erdogan’s meetings in Tehran and his meetings with Khamenei and Raisi.

As for Moscow, continuing communication with Ankara is of particular importance, firstly to control the limits of Turkish movements in Syria so as not to confuse Russian calculations at a time when Moscow is busy managing the war in Ukraine and escalation with Western countries, and secondly to exploit Ankara as a pivot or support He reached out to Western countries and Ukraine itself, in the context of maintaining channels of communication with opponents or expanding the margin of options available to them to deal with developments in the war and escalation. Turkey’s role was evident in the quadripartite meetings held in Istanbul starting on July 13, with the participation of Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations, which focused on the “safe shipment” of grain in Ukrainian ports by sea, especially the Danube River routes that were reopened under the blockade. imposed by Russia on the main ports in the Black Sea.

4- Promoting the continuation of a regional presence in the region: It is understandable to be keen on placing the Syrian file at the top of the agenda of the talks between the three presidents, and the discussions between them and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – who in turn focused on some axes in this file, whether related to the possible Turkish military operation, Or what is related to urging the continuation of consultation between Iran, Russia and Turkey – given that, in his view, this is the ideal mechanism for resolving the Syrian issue, in reference to Iran’s insistence on emptying the international track of the Syrian file of its content, in line with Russian calculations.

But that may not be the only goal; As Tehran and Moscow sought, through these events, to prove their determination to continue their presence in the Syrian file. It was noteworthy that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad visited Tehran one day after the Tehran summit, apparently indicating that there are new arrangements being worked out between Iran, Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime that imposed the necessity of visiting the Syrian minister at this time. This parallels Moscow’s desire to reiterate that its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine will not push it to reduce its interest in the political and security developments taking place in the Syrian arena, a path that appears that the two sides will tend to consolidate during the next stage.

Alliance Message

In light of this, it can be said in the end that the current circumstances imposed on Moscow, Tehran and Ankara the seriousness in developing bilateral relations, in a way that suggests that there is a state of fluidity in the patterns of interactions that the Middle East will witness during the next stage, especially after the parameters of the data that are being developed are crystallized. It was imposed by US President Joe Biden’s tour from July 13 to 16.