Analyses and interpretations have varied widely regarding the reasons and consequences of the large-scale attack on Hezbollah’s communications systems. The attacks began on September 17th with the explosion of hundreds of pagers in various regions of Lebanon and in some of Hezbollah’s positions in Syria, in a synchronized manner. The following day, simultaneous explosions targeted radio devices used by Hezbollah members, resulting in the deaths of 37 people and nearly 3,000 others being injured, many in critical condition according to Lebanon’s Minister of Health on September 19th. These events undoubtedly represent the largest security breach Hezbollah has faced since its inception, shattering the long-standing rules of engagement with Israel. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to claim that this unprecedented cyber-intelligence breach will be studied by many intelligence agencies around the world in the coming period.
Escalation by Tel Aviv
Although Tel Aviv has not officially claimed responsibility for this unprecedented security breach, and Israeli officials have avoided commenting on the matter, all indicators point to Israel’s direct involvement in the attacks, either unilaterally or in coordination with its Western allies, especially the United States. Regardless of the technical reasons behind these explosions, various factors may have pushed Israel to carry out these operations at this specific time. These factors can be summarized as follows:
Affirming Tel Aviv’s technological and intelligence superiority: Through these attacks, Israel aimed to assert its technological and intelligence superiority and respond practically to Hezbollah’s attempts to promote its possession of advanced technologies, particularly in the field of drones. Hezbollah has been able to monitor and film many sensitive strategic and military sites in northern Israel, sharing the footage through videos dubbed the “Hudhud series,” which were widely circulated. The group also later managed to control and down some Israeli drones.
Thus, Israel, by targeting Hezbollah’s communication devices, sought to demonstrate that there is no comparison between the capabilities of Iran-backed armed groups, especially Hezbollah, and those of Tel Aviv. The exact mechanism behind this complex operation remains unclear and is a topic of debate among observers. Some speculate that hackers tampered with the batteries inside the pagers through malicious code, causing them to explode, while others suggest that a third party intercepted the devices during transport to Hezbollah and planted explosives inside them, which were then detonated by a specific code.
Disrupting Hezbollah’s organizational structure and command-and-control systems: Israel aimed through this complex operation to disrupt and paralyze Hezbollah’s command and control systems. By simultaneously detonating thousands of communication devices across several Lebanese regions, Israel sought to impair the group’s ability to coordinate among its military and logistical cadres, especially amid the ongoing assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah leaders. These assassinations are expected to escalate in the near future. It’s worth noting that on Friday, September 20, 2024, the Israeli military targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs again, with Israeli sources indicating that the target was senior Hezbollah leader Ibrahim Aqil.
Sowing confusion, distrust, and chaos within Hezbollah’s ranks: Through this operation, Israel sought to undermine the morale of Hezbollah members by sowing confusion and distrust within the group. The explosions originated from devices that Hezbollah members rely on and carry, creating unprecedented chaos due to the element of surprise and the vast number of injuries. The result was an overwhelmed healthcare system, with hundreds of people requiring urgent surgeries.
Targeting Hezbollah’s popular support base: All indications suggest that the explosions didn’t just target Hezbollah’s military or civilian members but also its broader support base, especially in southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah’s presence is widespread among civilians, including homes, markets, and hospitals, which may explain the high number of casualties, including children. From an Israeli perspective, targeting Hezbollah’s support base and sowing chaos and despair among them would place additional pressure on Hezbollah’s leadership, pushing them to reconsider their approach to the ongoing escalation, which has been intensifying for nearly 11 months. Continued escalation could come at a high cost not just for Hezbollah’s ranks and leadership but also for its popular support base.
Sending deterrence messages to Tehran and its regional allies: Through the pager explosions, Israel aimed to send a deterrence message to its regional adversaries, especially the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Iran and many of its allied factions in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The message was clear: the cost of engaging in a full-scale war could be extremely high, not only on the military front but also across civilian sectors. Israel made it clear that it wouldn’t hesitate to leverage its technological and intelligence superiority to inflict maximum damage on its adversaries without facing significant international pressure that could deter it.
Israel, through this complex and unprecedented operation, sought to achieve several goals. As previously mentioned, these objectives primarily aim to deter Hezbollah, sever its ties with Palestinian factions, and halt the ongoing war of attrition on its northern borders, which has persisted for almost a year without resolution. This would pave the way for the return of approximately 100,000 Israeli displaced residents to their towns and cities, which have become nearly deserted in the north of the country and along the Lebanese border. The ongoing conflict has caused significant economic losses, with many tourist facilities and hotels closed, flights suspended, and northern agricultural areas heavily damaged. Local companies and energy sectors have also suffered considerable losses. Below are the most likely scenarios for escalation following the Beiger explosions and Hezbollah’s radio devices:
1. De-escalation and reaching mutual understandings:
This scenario suggests that the recent severe strikes against Hezbollah will deter the group from continuing its operations against Israel, fearing further heavy blows and the assassination of its leaders. The cost of Hezbollah’s participation in what it calls the “Gaza Support Front” may outweigh any potential gains, threatening the party’s military and organizational structure. According to this scenario, mutual understandings could be reached between the two sides, leading to a cessation of mutual strikes, the return of displaced persons to northern Israel, the separation of the Lebanese and Gaza files, and ultimately a resolution of the situation in Gaza according to Israeli terms.
However, this scenario faces several challenges. First, despite the strength and impact of the recent strikes, they did not result in the collapse of Hezbollah’s command and control system. Second, Hezbollah remains capable of launching dozens of rockets at cities and towns in northern Israel. Third, Hezbollah’s leadership may view halting the “Gaza Support Front” as a significant internal criticism, as it would be seen as a waste of a year’s worth of fighting on the Lebanese front.
2. Outbreak of full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah:
In this scenario, the severe blows Hezbollah has received and continues to receive could push the group to retaliate forcefully against Israel, crossing established red lines between the two sides. This could include targeting Israel’s deep territories with long-range missiles or assassinating high-ranking Israeli military leaders, which would prompt a strong Israeli response in Lebanon, leading to a full-scale war. This scenario is reinforced by ongoing Israeli statements about an impending conflict in the north, alongside increased Israeli military buildups on the Lebanese border, particularly as military pressure on Gaza’s fronts decreases. However, this scenario also faces challenges. First, a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel could lead to a major regional confrontation, potentially drawing Iran into direct involvement. Second, the U.S. is expected to intervene strongly to prevent a regional war at this time, as it is the last thing President Biden would want with elections approaching. Third, despite Israel’s military superiority and expected Western support, doubts remain about Israel’s ability to decisively win the war, especially with the significant pressures on its military and the societal impact of the war on an Israeli public already frustrated by the government’s delays in negotiating a deal with Hamas.
3. Continuation of the current situation with escalating clashes:
In this scenario, the current escalation between the two sides is expected to continue, with the intensity of clashes increasing over time. This would create a middle ground between full-scale war and the ongoing confrontations that have marked the past few months. Several factors reinforce this possibility. First, the previous rules of engagement between the two sides have almost completely collapsed following Hezbollah’s communication device explosions. Second, Hezbollah is more compelled than ever to respond to Israel’s successive strikes, which have significantly tarnished the party’s image. Third, Hezbollah and its backer Iran remain committed to continuing and prolonging the “war of attrition against Israel.” They see this war as costly for Israel domestically and as a key bargaining chip for Palestinian negotiators. Fourth, Israel’s recent successful operations and assassinations deep inside Lebanon will likely push it to escalate these operations in the coming period, aiming to exert maximum military and security pressure on Hezbollah without declaring full-scale war.
Escalating Confrontations
In conclusion, Israel is expected to continue targeting Hezbollah’s strongholds in Lebanon and assassinating the group’s top leaders in the coming period. However, this Israeli push is unlikely to force Hezbollah to sever ties with Palestinian factions or calm the ongoing confrontations that have lasted for months along the front. It is more likely that Hezbollah will absorb these strikes while attempting to increase their cost to Israel, especially since all previous rules of engagement and red lines between the two sides have been shattered. This makes the scenario of a full-scale confrontation more probable than ever, despite both sides trying to avoid it.
