What does Moscow’s new foreign policy document reveal?
By Asma El Safty – Interregional for Strategic Analytics
Six months after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin announced, on September 5, 2022, a new plan for Russian foreign policy based on a principle he called “the Russian world.” With this move, the Russian president legitimized Russia’s conservative and expansionist ideology, which aims to justify the interventionist policies led by Moscow against countries that were formerly affiliated with the Soviet Union. This document also reinforces the state of global and regional fear and anticipation in particular, for Russia’s next steps, and the possibility of Russian neighboring countries being subjected to an expanded invasion, similar to the military operation currently active in Ukraine.
The main elements of the document
Despite the presentation of the new Russian foreign policy document, with the ideological ideas presented by the Russian President at the end of 2021, during his controversial article in which he indicated that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are one people, they should live in the same country; It sheds light on a number of expected escalatory Russian foreign policy elements, as follows:
1- Rooting the concept of the Russian nation: in the document called “Humanitarian Policy”, consisting of 31 pages, Russia claims that it must protect and strengthen the traditions of the identity of the Russian world, and strengthen relations with states, including Slavic countries; And that is by supporting the Russians abroad, by any means possible, which is considered by analysts and specialists in the Russian affairs as a direct and official declaration of war on the formerly dependent countries of the Soviet Union, which do not respect the rights of their Russian citizens, according to Moscow’s claim, and confirms Russia’s continued support The material and morale for the Russian minorities and dissident pro-Russian entities in these countries, as it did with the dissidents in eastern Ukraine.
2- Unlimited support for Russian minorities abroad : The document states that “the Russian Federation provides support to its citizens living abroad; To ensure the protection of their interests and the preservation of their Russian cultural identity.” The document indicated that Russia’s role in supporting Russian minorities abroad made it a country of geopolitical stature and importance on the international scene. It also proved that it is a super democratic country that comes to the aid of its people wherever they are. To defeat Western imperialism and create a multipolar world.
3- The document’s emphasis on Russian soft power tools: In clear contradiction with Russia’s reliance on military force in dealing with the Ukrainian file, the new foreign policy document came to give more importance to Moscow’s soft power tools. According to the document, Russia’s national interests in the humanitarian sphere abroad are “the protection of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, familiarization with the world community of the historical and cultural heritage and achievements of the multinational people of the Russian Federation and its achievements, mutual enrichment of the cultures of the peoples of the Russian Federation and foreign countries, including increased access to Russian and world cultural heritage, development of international humanitarian cooperation on a just, reciprocal, open and non-discriminatory basis.
4- Legitimizing Russia’s current expansionist agenda: For years, Putin has been promoting what he sees as the tragic fate of the 25 million ethnic Russians who found themselves living outside Russia in newly independent states when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, calling it a geopolitical and humanitarian catastrophe. Russia continued to invoke the idea of its legitimate sphere of influence represented by the space of the former Soviet Union from the Baltic states to Central Asia, an idea that many of these states, as well as Western powers, have strongly resisted.
Russia has long believed that it retains a sphere of influence over Slavic countries ranging from Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the west, Belarus and Ukraine in the east, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Bulgaria, all the way to North Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia in the south. Despite this, the leaders of these countries objected to the supposed Russian influence over them. According to the document, Moscow will work to deepen its relations with Russians living abroad, who are estimated at 25 million people of Russian origin. Many experts believe that with the issuance of this document, the Russian foreign expansion plan will go beyond the current Russian military operation in Ukraine, and they expected that the next stop for the Russian president would be the regions of Abkhazia and Ossetia in Georgia. Russia designated these two regions as independent states following its limited military operation against Georgia in 2008.
5- Shedding light on Moscow’s new allies: Another interesting aspect of the new Russian foreign policy document is Russia’s naming of the countries it considers strategic partners and allies of the Kremlin. The document included an explicit mention of China, a confirmation of the broad partnership and cooperation that currently exists between the two countries, which aims – according to the document – to build a multipolar international system. However, the other, more important name was India; The country that broke out of the consensus of the Western alliance, and refused to sever its ties with Moscow, in an increasing confirmation of New Delhi’s transformation from a regional actor to an actor at the international and global levels.
future consequences
The new Russian foreign policy document has a number of potential consequences, the most important of which can be addressed as follows:
1- Realizing Putin’s dream of restoring the Great Russian Empire: During his last meeting with members of the Russian government, which was devoted to discussing long-term social and economic development, Putin hinted that Russia has not forgotten the places where Russian blood was shed and will not be forgotten. In reference to the Russian victims who fell during the Crimean War of 1854, in which Russia lost to an alliance that included the Ottoman Empire, France and the United Kingdom, Putin also referred to the heroism and glories of the Tsarist Russian army, while emphasizing that contemporary Russia has a sacred duty to be performed. It is to make sure that the sacrifices made by previous generations were not in vain, in reference to Tsarist Russia’s dream of expanding and building a huge empire.
Such statements confirm President Putin’s tireless pursuit of building imperial Russia and realizing the long-absented dream of the Russian nation. He is also thinking about his political legacy, which he will leave, in the event of his absence from the head of political power in Russia.
2- Entering a new phase of Russian-Slavic relations: One of the countries designated by the Russian foreign policy document are the Slavic countries that are currently known as the Balkan countries. Although these countries enjoy strong economic and cultural ties and ties with Russia, some of these countries refuse to come back under Russia’s authority; To name a few, countries such as Serbia and Montenegro have consistently encouraged Russian commercial attempts to expand bilateral economic and trade relations in strategic areas, such as energy, banking and real estate. However, transforming this partnership into a federation with Russia may be met with unprecedented opposition and rejection in Countries close to Moscow, not to mention those already hostile to the Kremlin and the expansionist ambitions of President Putin.
All of these facts confirm that Russia’s relations with the countries affiliated with the former Soviet Union, especially the Balkan countries, will not follow their previous pattern, and may involve a lot of tension and attraction, which will reflect on the general stability in the region, and this new policy will also result in a direct collision with the Union’s agenda. European and NATO expansionism in this region.
3- Excluding the approaching end of the Russian military operation in Ukraine: The document emphasized in more than one place the close relations that Russia has with its minorities residing abroad, and it specifically mentioned the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Which sends direct messages to the countries of the Western alliance, and the current Ukrainian government, that the current war represents the point of no return in Russian foreign policy. As a result, the current war is far from over. Russian goals have not been achieved; This is despite the ability of the Ukrainian forces to inflict some losses on the Russian forces in the current battles in eastern and southern Ukraine.
4- Strengthening the trend of the international system towards multipolarity: The previous Russian foreign policy document confirmed, as indicated before, that Moscow is working to strengthen its cooperation with China and India, in addition to highlighting the importance of strengthening its relationship with the countries of the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, especially the countries that It has adopted a neutral stance towards the Russian war in Ukraine, or has taken positive steps towards the current Russian administration, like India; New Delhi has contributed, in one way or another, to restoring the Russian currency, the ruble, part of its strength, after the strong blow it received against the backdrop of the current military operation in Ukraine.
On the other hand, a number of Middle Eastern countries affirmed their desire to preserve their relationship with Russia, by avoiding joining the Western sanctions regime, not to mention refusing to raise production of oil and natural gas to compensate for the Russian absence from global energy markets, while Russia and China relations do not hidden from anyone. The document came to give a Russian roadmap with a global character, which refuses to submit to retreat at times and progresses in the process of exiting the American hegemony over the international system, especially in the economic and political aspects.
In the end, it can be said that this document, although it did not provide much, opens a window on the shape and nature of the upcoming international and global order; Conflicts and proxy wars in areas far from the Russian and American strategic depth will turn into large arenas of conflict, foremost of which is Africa, and some countries will be forced to change their foreign and domestic policies accordingly, especially Germany, which is witnessing extensive demonstrations and objections to the current energy policies hostile to nuclear energy. Not to mention that it had to add fundamental changes to budgetary allocations, such as abandoning the scientific and cultural impact clause and awarding educational scholarships to international students – similar to the DAAD scholarship , which was reported to have canceled a large part of its allocations – in favor of building a massive military force.
