Nicolás Maduro’s regime, ruling in Venezuela, is facing a major challenge as regional and international pressures on him have increased to retract the results of the recent elections. The electoral council announced that Maduro won with 51% of the vote. However, the opposition succeeded in publishing nearly 80% of the vote count sheets, which indicate a victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia. At the same time, Maduro is relying heavily on his control of the country’s security apparatus to enforce the announced results.
Rapid Developments:
Since the end of the presidential election wave in Venezuela, in late August 2024, until the present time, the political crisis in the country has witnessed a number of developments, which can be outlined as follows:
1. Doubts over election results: The National Electoral Council of Venezuela, which is dominated by supporters of the ruling party, declared Nicolás Maduro the winner with 51.95% of the votes, while his main opponent, Edmundo González, received 43.18%. However, unlike previous presidential elections, the council did not publish any detailed data to support the results. This was rejected by the opposition, which published on its website the results from 81.7% of the verified polling stations, showing that their candidate won with 67% of the vote compared to 30% for Maduro.
As a result, the United States and ten Latin American countries – Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay – issued a joint statement questioning the transparency and fairness of the election. They also refused to acknowledge the Venezuelan Supreme Court’s validation of Maduro’s re-election.
In response, Venezuela decided to withdraw its diplomatic representatives from these countries and revoked Brazil’s mandate to represent Buenos Aires’ interests in Venezuela. This mandate had been granted after Argentine diplomats were expelled from the country.
The European bloc also rejected the election results, with the European Union stating that the results announced by the National Electoral Council “cannot be recognized.” However, the EU refrained from acknowledging the victory of opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares called for “complete transparency” by “publishing the results from every polling station so that we can verify them.” His Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani, expressed his “surprise” at the smooth conduct of the elections, demanding that the results be verifiable and that the relevant documents be accessible.
2. Escalation of internal violence: The crisis entered a new phase amid widespread public protests across the country, accompanied by violence and clashes between demonstrators and security forces, resulting in at least 20 deaths. Around 1,200 people were also arrested. Additionally, the Venezuelan judiciary issued an arrest warrant for former presidential candidate Edmundo González in connection with a criminal investigation related to the election results. He was accused of committing several crimes, including conspiracy and document forgery. This eventually led to González leaving Venezuela for Spain, where he was granted political asylum after Venezuelan authorities allowed him to depart the country.
Multiple Scenarios:
The opposition candidate’s asylum in Spain has created new scenarios in Venezuela, as follows:
Maduro Retaining Power: Most analyses suggest that Maduro will be able to retain power and will not step down under any pressure. This is supported by several factors:
A. Washington’s Reluctance to Take Radical Action Against Maduro: Some have pointed out that President Joe Biden’s administration is unlikely to adopt the “maximum pressure” policy that former President Donald Trump implemented in 2019, as it failed to oust Maduro. Additionally, the U.S. no longer recognizes opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president, a stance initially taken based on claims that Maduro rigged the 2018 elections. It seems that the U.S. believes adopting a maximum pressure strategy could drive Maduro closer to the United States’ geopolitical rivals, namely China and Russia, both of which recognized his victory in the elections. Moreover, with the upcoming U.S. elections in November 2024, many believe Washington’s preference for a “carrot” rather than a “stick” approach with Maduro is meant to strengthen his grip on power. Although the Biden administration reimposed broad oil sanctions on Caracas in April 2024 after Maduro failed to fulfill promises of free and fair elections, the exemptions granted to individual oil companies, particularly Chevron, have led to a significant increase in Venezuelan oil production. It is unlikely this policy will be reversed, as the U.S. does not want to take any steps that could lead to higher fuel prices before the elections. This view is further supported by secret talks within the Biden administration, considering issuing a pardon for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his top aides, who face indictments from the Department of Justice, if they enter negotiations for a transitional phase. One insider familiar with these discussions noted that the U.S. has put “everything on the table” to persuade Maduro to leave before his term ends and a new one begins in January 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal.
B. Failure of Regional Efforts: Some believe Maduro’s continued hold on power is due to the failure of regional efforts, particularly from U.S. partners in Latin America, aimed at encouraging democratic openness in the country. After Mexico withdrew from the trilateral initiative it launched with Brazil and Colombia due to protests against Washington’s approach—which Mexican President Manuel López Obrador called reckless—Brazilian President Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro pulled back from their insistence on verifying the election results. Instead, they proposed separate solutions to the crisis, ranging from new elections to power-sharing arrangements, to prevent further escalation. However, these proposals were rejected by both the opposition and the government. Although both countries are clear that they will not legitimize Maduro’s power grab, neither has signaled any intention to cut diplomatic ties with Venezuela or join an international sanctions campaign against it.
C. The Role of Venezuelan Security Forces: Some argue that efforts by the opposition, alongside international pressure, may not be enough to convince Maduro to negotiate an exit or a power-sharing agreement because Venezuelan security leaders are unwilling to abandon him. Maduro retains control over the armed forces, the military police, paramilitary groups, and various intelligence agencies. Generals in particular control significant parts of the country’s economy, especially oil, which is crucial for Venezuela’s economy. As such, they have little incentive to facilitate a power transition. In short, there are currently no signs indicating that Maduro won’t be able to withstand another round of internal dissent and relatively tame international rebuke.
Increased Pressure on Maduro’s Regime: Some estimates suggest that Maduro’s government will face immense pressure that could force him to step down or call for new elections, as outlined below:
A. Stricter Sanctions: Some believe that pressure on Maduro’s regime could intensify if full sanctions are reimposed on Venezuela, including those affecting Chevron, which plays a significant role in the Venezuelan economy already battered by sanctions. Chevron’s operations account for about 20% of the country’s crude oil exports and 31% of the government’s total oil revenue, alongside increased diplomatic isolation and political pressure. This process began on September 12, 2024, when the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed new sanctions on sixteen individuals linked to Maduro, including members of the National Electoral Council, the Supreme Court, and the National Assembly, on charges of obstructing the electoral process and preventing the publication of election results. The U.S. Department of State also imposed visa restrictions on them, limiting their ability to travel or conduct business with the U.S. Additionally, on September 2, 2024, U.S. authorities announced that they had seized Maduro’s plane in the Dominican Republic and transported it to Florida, claiming it was purchased in violation of U.S. sanctions—sending an implicit message that the regime’s leadership will not be exempt from sanctions.
B. Utilizing González to Lead Diplomatic Efforts from Abroad: Some experts argue that, although González’s decision to seek asylum in Spain may seem like a retreat, it could be a strategic move to increase pressure on Maduro. As a seasoned diplomat supported by several countries and enjoying strong public support while being out of reach of Venezuela’s security apparatus, his asylum in Spain could enable him to lead efforts aimed at ousting Maduro. This could include mobilizing Venezuelan communities worldwide to challenge Maduro’s regime.
Agreed Upon Peaceful Transition: Some estimates suggest that the internal structure of Maduro’s regime could collapse due to a lack of trust and the tendency of certain regime figures to prioritize their economic interests over other considerations. These actors could align with the opposition and the international community to plan a peaceful transition in exchange for safeguarding their interests and securing immunity guarantees from international organizations. Consequently, Maduro may negotiate with the opposition for an agreed-upon solution that allows him to go into exile with certain guarantees. He might seek asylum in allied countries like Mexico, Cuba, or Russia if he is ousted, as his government’s end could lead to trials for human rights violations and corruption. There is also a scenario suggesting the possibility of negotiating a departure that would allow him to retain some political influence, though this is unlikely. In conclusion, it can be said that the most likely scenario is that Maduro will succeed in clinging to power, possibly engaging in largely symbolic negotiations with opposition figures to buy time, while benefiting from the international community’s preoccupation with other conflicts, such as in Ukraine and the Middle East. The deepening polarization and failure to reach a resolution between the opposition and the government could lead to a prolonged breakdown in the dialogue necessary to address Venezuela’s political, economic, and social problems.
