The announcement by the French Foreign Minister on July 30th, supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan for resolving the Western Sahara conflict, was widely welcomed in Rabat but provoked anger in Algeria, which quickly recalled its ambassador. This marks a significant shift in French diplomacy, aiming to resolve recent tensions with Morocco but potentially heightening strains with Algeria. This raises questions about the potential impacts on the Western Sahara issue and the future of France’s relations with both sides.
French President Emmanuel Macron affirmed on Tuesday, July 30th, that France “recognizes the Moroccan plan for autonomy in the Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty as the sole basis for reaching a political solution.” Macron added in a message to Morocco’s King Mohammed VI on the occasion of Morocco’s National Day, “For France, this proposal is the framework within which this issue must be resolved.” This pivotal step was not surprising, as France had previously expressed its “clear and ongoing” support for the autonomy proposal through its Foreign Minister, Stéphane Séjourné, during his visit to Morocco last February, a statement that significantly improved relations between Paris and Rabat.
Diverse Reactions
The Algerian government announced on Tuesday, July 30th, that it had recalled its ambassador to France “with immediate effect” after the French government recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Algeria expressed “strong disapproval” of the French government’s stance, which it was informed of “in recent days,” and threatened to take further action against Paris, warning through its Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, that the move could “entrench the political stalemate that has persisted for nearly two decades.” The Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had taken note of the unexpected decision by the French government, adding that no previous French government had taken such a step and that the decision had been made by the current government with great recklessness and disregard for the consequences.
The Polisario Front endorsed the Algerian Foreign Ministry’s statement and expressed its disapproval of what it described as France’s support for the “occupation” of Western Sahara.
On the other hand, the European Union reaffirmed its consistent stance on the Western Sahara issue following France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the region. The EU’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized the need for a political solution to the Western Sahara issue, noting that each member state is free to respond according to its own position, but the EU’s stance remains unchanged in its full support for UN efforts to find a comprehensive and lasting solution to this conflict based on international law and relevant Security Council resolutions.
In response, Moroccan King Mohammed VI invited French President Emmanuel Macron for an official visit to the Kingdom following Paris’s declaration of support for Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Moroccan political parties and elites responded positively to France’s new stance, viewing it as reflecting the natural and historical relations between the two countries, despite the fluctuations in their relations in recent years.
Motivations Behind France’s Recognition of Moroccan Sovereignty Over the Sahara
France’s position follows similar stances taken by several countries, including Spain, the United States, Israel, and some Eastern European countries. This prompted France to align itself with these countries to maintain its relationship with Rabat. Additionally, there are other underlying motivations behind this unprecedented French move, which can be highlighted as follows:
Rearranging France’s Strategies in Bilateral Relations with Morocco: Evidence suggests that France has conducted a comprehensive review of its strategies in North Africa in light of the positive developments in French-Moroccan relations. Paris appears to have taken a more explicit step in supporting Morocco’s position, as Morocco represents a strategic ally for France in security and economic cooperation. This opens the door to potential and possibly unique opportunities for investment, energy, and security in the region. The new French position is linked to the dynamic rapprochement that has recently characterized Paris-Rabat relations, which was evident following statements by Nicolas de Rivière, France’s permanent representative to the United Nations, before the UN Security Council in November 2023, reaffirming France’s “historic, clear, and ongoing” support for Morocco’s autonomy plan since 2007. This was followed by a series of statements by French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, reinforcing this direction by recalling the traditional cooperation between the two countries.
Mutual Economic Interests: The recognition may also be driven by mutual economic interests, as Morocco is a crucial economic partner for France in the region. Recognizing Moroccan sovereignty enhances cooperation opportunities in sectors such as trade, energy, and investments, providing France with early and exclusive advantages in North Africa. It is also worth noting that France has significant investments in Morocco, making support for Moroccan sovereignty an essential part of efforts to protect and further develop those investments.
Reevaluating Relations with Algeria: Unlike the stable relationship between France and Morocco, relations between France and Algeria are complex and changeable. Despite notable bilateral cooperation, colonial legacy and political disagreements continue to pose challenges to strengthening economic and trade ties. France is one of the leading investors in Algeria, with widespread bilateral trade, but economic policy changes or financial crises could negatively impact the stability of these relations. It seems that France’s decision is primarily driven by its vision of future interests in Algeria rather than the size of current trade relations, due to Algeria’s growing rapprochement with Russia and other countries competing with Paris in Africa, such as Italy, Turkey, and China. This rapprochement has allowed these countries to expand their investments and market share in Algeria at the expense of French investments, which are declining, thereby negatively affecting French influence in the country. It is worth mentioning that an agreement titled “Renewed Partnership” was signed between Algeria and Paris in August 2022, but it has not achieved any tangible progress that would indicate the possibility of France regaining its previous preferences in the Algerian market.
French Attempt to Compete with Russia in the Sahel and Sahara Region: France’s recent recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara is seen as an attempt to fill the gap left by its withdrawal from the Sahel and Sahara region and to counter Russia’s influence in Africa. This is supported by the ongoing competition between Algeria and Morocco in the Sahel and Sahara region. Therefore, France seems to be pursuing a new approach to maintaining its interests in the continent, especially after its withdrawal from the African Sahel. This approach may involve strengthening and deepening its relationship with Morocco to create a form of power balance in the region by competing with Russian presence.
Moroccan Pressure on Paris: The shift in France’s position coincides with the escalating tensions in French-Moroccan relations since 2020, as Rabat exerted indirect pressure on Paris to clarify its stance on the Sahara issue. Moroccan King Mohammed VI has pointed out that the U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara boosted Morocco’s diplomatic confidence and helped redefine its foreign policy. As a result, the Sahara issue has become the lens through which Rabat views the world, according to the Moroccan monarch. Based on Morocco’s foreign policy stance, relations between Paris and Rabat have deteriorated in recent years, with notable incidents such as King Mohammed VI’s refusal to accept state visit requests from the French President, as reported by the “Hespress” website. Morocco also began withdrawing investments from commercial partnerships with France, which was previously its preferred international economic partner. The relationship has been marked by several crises, including the “Pegasus Spyware Scandal,” the “Visa Crisis,” the recall of the Moroccan ambassador to France, and the rejection of French aid after the Al-Haouz earthquake. However, Paris has continued to seek rapprochement with Morocco to maintain an important economic and political foothold in Africa. Meanwhile, Morocco has not completely severed its ties with the French government, as evidenced by ongoing security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries. For example, Moroccan forces are currently helping to secure the ongoing Olympic Games in Paris.
Consequences of France’s Decision
The position announced by French President Emmanuel Macron in his message represents a fundamental shift in French foreign policy towards the Maghreb region, which had been adhered to since it was established by former President François Hollande in 2012. These principles involved maintaining a balanced relationship with the parties in conflict over the fate of Western Sahara. France’s recent recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara has important repercussions on the regional stage, which can be highlighted as follows:
On the Political Level:
Tension in Relations with Algeria: This is one of the most significant consequences of the French position in deepening tensions in “French-Algerian” relations due to the sensitivity of the Western Sahara issue among Algerian officials. This is evident in Algeria’s strong disapproval of the French government’s decision, along with the recall of its ambassador to Paris “immediately.”
The Polisario Front’s Response: The Polisario Front announced its exclusion of France from any initiative aimed at ending what it describes as “colonization in the Sahara.”
The Upcoming Visit of President Tebboune: The French decision has destabilized the gradual improvement in relations between France and Algeria since the resolution of the diplomatic crisis between the two countries in February 2023, which had led to discussions about an upcoming official visit by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to France in the fall. Tebboune had described this visit as a “date with history” and had recently emphasized that the current relationship with France had reached a level of maturity that required redefining it, without retreating from any part related to historical memory issues. However, this visit now seems unlikely to take place due to the current tensions between the involved parties. It is worth noting that this visit had been canceled three previous times, originally scheduled for late January 2023 and then postponed to May of the same year.
On the Economic Level:
Economic Repercussions: France’s significant shift in position, which has now become official after the announcement, has led Algeria to suspend its commercial relations with Paris, based on Article 8 of the Algiers Agreement, which stipulates that bilateral agreements should be concluded with third parties only with the approval of the three main parties to the conflict (Morocco, Polisario, and Algeria). However, this remains only a possibility as France is unlikely to sacrifice its commercial and economic interests with Algeria by taking steps that would jeopardize those interests. Therefore, this option seems distant at present, given that France’s decision was motivated by its desire to maintain its strategic and economic interests, albeit by different means.
In conclusion, France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara marks a significant departure from its previous balanced stance in the region. This move aligns with similar positions taken by other countries but comes with potential risks, particularly in terms of its relations with Algeria and the broader political landscape of the Maghreb region. The long-term implications of this shift remain to be seen, as both Algeria and Morocco navigate the changing dynamics of their relationships with France and other global powers.
