European countries have once again started to experience an increase in terrorist threats. On August 7, 2024, Austrian security authorities announced the cancellation of three concerts by American singer Taylor Swift in Vienna based on intelligence provided by the United States. The intelligence indicated that ISIS was planning to carry out a terrorist attack targeting the crowds at these concerts. The police found chemicals used to make explosives and bombs in the home of the main suspect, a 19-year-old man of North Macedonian descent who had pledged allegiance online to ISIS Khorasan in June.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer stated on August 8, 2024, that the foiled terrorist threat was “extremely serious.” He noted that the main suspect had confessed during investigations to collaborating with two accomplices—one Austrian and the other Iraqi—to plan a major suicide attack during Swift’s concerts, which the authorities decided to cancel before they could turn into a “bloodbath,” as he described it.
Motivations for Violence
The recent foiled terrorist operation raises an important question about the factors that motivated ISIS to once again target European countries. This can be explained as follows:
- Propaganda Driven by the Gaza War: ISIS has exploited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip to urge its members to expand their terrorist activities in countries that support Tel Aviv, including Europe. The group used its weekly publication “Al-Naba” to encourage “lone wolves” to attack European Union countries and not be swayed by Western media, which exaggerates the defensive capabilities of these countries. They urged young people to experience for themselves the vulnerabilities of the region’s security systems.
- Ongoing Online Recruitment of Youth and Adolescents: Austrian authorities confirmed that the young suspects in the failed attempt to bomb Swift’s concerts were recruited online by ISIS. The cell they belonged to communicated via social media through encrypted messages to bypass security measures. This indicates that ISIS still has the ability to infiltrate European youth through the internet, ideologically and organizationally recruiting them, while also continuing to circulate terrorist content on bomb-making and securing the necessary funding for major operations.
According to a Europol report from December 2023 on the state of terrorism and its trends in Europe during 2022, there was an increase in cases handled by courts in the region related to incitement to terrorism via social media. These platforms are increasingly used for spreading extremist propaganda, recruitment, and ideological indoctrination. The report particularly highlighted the role of gaming platforms in recruiting teenagers and young people into terrorist groups.
CNN reported on July 25, 2024, citing academic research reviewing Europol data, that two-thirds of ISIS-related arrests in Europe since October 2023 involved teenagers aged 13 to 19. The number of foiled terrorist attacks during this period increased about fourfold since 2022, amid a clear rise in youth recruitment via social media, pushing them to carry out violent acts in the region.
- Exploitation of Europe’s Intelligence Overload: The complex political circumstances have forced security agencies to track multiple files simultaneously, which terrorist groups try to exploit. Both ISIS and Al-Qaeda, in separate publications, agreed on exploiting major powers’ conflicts to grow within societies, adapting to the available conditions.
On one hand, the region’s countries fear the potential security impacts of the conflict with Russia. In April 2024, the German intelligence agency requested broader security powers to address suspicions of Moscow funding far-right groups in Europe to increase security pressure on the region by causing internal disturbances. On the other hand, the Gaza war led to increased security for Israeli interests and foreign embassies, raising the alert level on multiple fronts.
Meanwhile, Iran’s exploitation of active hotspots in Europe to support its proxies involved in Middle Eastern conflicts has increased the region’s security burdens. In July 2024, German and Spanish authorities uncovered a Hezbollah cell operating between the two countries to supply drone components to the group’s branch in Lebanon through cover companies. In the same month, German authorities arrested a Lebanese suspect working to acquire advanced drone technology for Hezbollah, prompting Berlin to close the Islamic Center in Hamburg, linked to Iran’s Supreme Leader, on July 24, 2024, in response to Tehran’s increasing intelligence activities in the country. In February 2022, an Austrian court sentenced a Lebanese citizen to five years in prison for forming a cell to recruit citizens for Hezbollah.
- Exploitation of Far-Right Violence by Terrorist Organizations: The increasing violence by far-right groups in Europe, amid anti-Muslim statements by some politicians, provides opportunities for extremist groups to fuel hostile rhetoric, enhancing the chances of terrorist attacks in retaliation for insults from the other side. What increases the risk in this context is the competition among extremist groups to demonstrate their ability to swiftly and profoundly avenge religious values attacked by far-right movements, amid violent calls to exploit this issue to serve the political and operational goals of these organizations. This was evident in Al-Qaeda’s attacks on the “Charlie Hebdo” newspaper in France and in ISIS’s statements about using far-right violence as fuel for its agenda.
- Ideological and Operational Motives for Targeting Concerts: ISIS uses attacks on music concerts to achieve several ideological and organizational goals. On one hand, the group wants to assert its fight against moral corruption, according to its own interpretations of religion. On the other hand, concerts provide large human gatherings, allowing the group to cause maximum casualties to amplify its influence and draw media attention to its capabilities and continued presence, despite the military operations led by the U.S.-led coalition against its main strongholds in Syria and Iraq. The group also seeks to undermine the security measures taken by regional countries against its cells.
ISIS has a series of terrorist operations against music concerts, such as the Crocus operation in Moscow in March 2024, which killed over 140 people, the Bataclan theater attack in France as part of the 2015 Paris attacks, and the May 22, 2017 attack on American singer Ariana Grande’s concert at the Manchester Arena.
- Concerns About Security Instability Related to Migration Through the Balkans: Illegal migration waves from or through the Balkans are among the top security concerns in Europe. In May 2024, the governor of Burgenland in Austria stated that the Balkan route is not completely closed but operates as usual, despite the efforts of regional governments to prevent the flow of illegal migrants through this route. Migration through this route poses risks of terrorist elements infiltrating EU countries via the Hungary-Austria gateway. However, the violent attacks planned or carried out in Vienna were by individuals of Balkan descent, as in the recent ISIS attempt and the November 2020 Vienna attack carried out by an ISIS member of North Macedonian descent.
- Revenge Against Coalition Countries: ISIS aims to carry out terrorist attacks against countries that participated in the international coalition led by the United States against its strongholds in Syria and Iraq. The group continues to encourage its members to target these countries through propaganda sermons about their role in threatening its existence as a representative of religion. On March 28, 2024, the group issued a statement by its spokesperson, Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, urging members to avenge the governments that participated in the war against it through motivating religious messages.
Challenges to Confronting the Threat
Western countries face several key challenges in countering the terrorist threat:
- Developing Anti-Terrorism Laws: European governments face legal challenges in dealing with terrorism. While there is a need to introduce new laws that address emerging challenges in this field, existing systems clash with constitutional provisions on individual rights that, in some cases, conflict with the requirements to curb extremism. Human rights groups play a significant role in this regard.
In this context, Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said on August 8, 2024, that foreign intelligence agencies helped security services investigate the plan to target concerts in Vienna because the country’s law does not allow monitoring of online messaging applications.
Nevertheless, some European governments have managed to develop anti-terrorism laws according to their national security needs, despite human rights objections. For example, the Swiss government insisted on amendments to extremism-related laws until their approval in 2021, even though human rights advocates, including some UN leaders, expressed concerns in September 2020 about the broad police powers granted by this law and their impact on public freedoms, as well as concerns about the legal provisions related to dealing with minors involved in terrorism cases.
- Ineffective Psychological Treatment Programs: Some European countries have implemented psychological and social programs to rehabilitate extremists and reintegrate them into society after serving their prison sentences, and to deal with those suspected of ideological involvement in extremism without sufficient evidence to imprison them. However, some of these programs have proven ineffective, especially in Austria. The attack carried out by Kujtim Fejzulai, a 20-year-old, in Vienna in November 2020, which killed 4 people, occurred after he had undergone a psychological rehabilitation program of this type following his 22-month detention in April 2019 for his arrest and deportation from Turkey while attempting to travel to Syria to join ISIS.
These failures raise further concerns about handling the returnees from ISIS, especially women and children whom authorities believe can be influenced by social and psychological rehabilitation programs to change their violent tendencies. This casts doubt on how European governments deal with the issue of returnees.
- Challenges in Defining and Categorizing Terrorism: Some Western countries still lack a clear and precise definition of terrorism, leading them to label only “takfiri” (excommunication-based) religiously motivated acts as terrorism, while labeling other attacks as hate crimes. This situation affects the handling of cross-border terrorist organizations, both at the level of international law and intergovernmental cooperation and in dealing with extremist movements that could fuel parallel takfiri violence.
Exploitation Opportunities
It can be said that ISIS seeks to exploit
the security challenges faced by European governments to infiltrate the region again and adapt to these circumstances to strengthen its presence in Europe, not only in the field of recruitment but also by engaging in major violent activities, with the aim of exhausting the security services and threatening regional stability. Despite their cooperation with other countries in the fight against terrorism, European governments must develop legal and operational frameworks to manage emerging challenges in this regard, without being drawn into extremist narratives, and ensure that these frameworks do not conflict with human rights. They should also adopt strategies that address the changing trends in terrorist activities and the recruitment of adolescents via social media and encrypted channels, as part of an integrated vision to deal with this threat.
