Both the United States and China are striving to avoid a catastrophic conflict between them. To that end, officials from both countries conduct reciprocal visits—either publicly or secretly—in pursuit of this goal. As part of these efforts, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made an official visit to China in late August 2024, marking his first visit since assuming office. The visit included formal discussions on several unresolved issues in the political, military, and trade spheres.
Between Tension and De-escalation:
This unprecedented summit comes amid a number of factors, which can be summarized as follows:
Reciprocal Visits: Despite ongoing disagreements, communication channels between China and the U.S. have not ceased. The most recent reciprocal visits included U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trips to Beijing in April 2024, amid mutual efforts to resolve conflicts and prevent a clash between the two major powers.
At the same time as Sullivan’s visit, a Chinese trade delegation led by Ren Hongbin, Chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, visited the United States, invited by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.-China Business Council in August 2024. These meetings emphasized the importance of business communities in strengthening bilateral relations despite the challenges. During his speech at the Sixth U.S.-China Business Forum hosted by Forbes China in New York on August 29, 2024, Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, reaffirmed that cooperation is the only correct path for U.S.-China relations.
Escalating Trade and Technology Wars: Earlier this year, President Joe Biden’s administration announced it would maintain a range of tariffs on Chinese goods and planned to increase them on categories such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. The U.S. also imposed restrictions to prevent China from accessing advanced U.S. technology and dual-use applications. In response, China restricted the export of essential materials needed for high-tech goods production.
On August 23, 2024, the U.S. imposed sanctions on nearly 400 individuals and companies for assisting Russia in circumventing U.S. sanctions and contributing to the war in Ukraine. China’s Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. action, stating it undermines international trade rules, disrupts global economic exchanges, and threatens the security and stability of global supply chains.
Ahead of Sullivan’s visit, Chinese Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui expressed China’s dissatisfaction, labeling the sanctions on Chinese entities as illegal, unilateral, and baseless.
Heightened Regional Tensions: Sullivan’s visit took place amid ongoing security disputes between China and U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines. Tensions have peaked in recent times, with Manila accusing Beijing of using excessive force that threatens navigation safety and describing China as the “biggest obstacle” to peace in Southeast Asia. This prompted the U.S. to consult with its ally, the Philippines, through meetings held by Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, on escorting Philippine vessels in the South China Sea. These consultations coincided with the U.S. National Security Advisor’s visit to China, and in a statement issued on August 31, 2024, the U.S. State Department hinted at offering support to its ally under the Mutual Defense Treaty.
Dimensions of the Visit:
This exceptional visit covered numerous pending issues, which can be summarized as follows:
Reducing Tensions: The primary purpose of this first-of-its-kind visit by the U.S. National Security Advisor to China in eight years was to manage competitive relations, avoid conflict, and reduce tensions during the remainder of President Biden’s administration. There was also a need to deepen diplomatic coordination, especially with several major events expected later in the year where the two presidents might meet, such as the G20 Summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting.
These talks are seen as one of the outcomes of the 2023 San Francisco summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. The visit was not aimed at achieving major breakthroughs in bilateral relations but at maintaining steady momentum and avoiding new crises in the coming months.
Political and Military Talks: The visit included around six sessions, described as frank, substantive, and constructive. Both sides discussed the future of bilateral relations, unresolved issues, and heated international and regional matters. Sullivan met with several Chinese leaders, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia.
The U.S. side also sought to enhance military exchanges between the two armies, which had been disrupted since military talks were suspended following the visit of former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022. Discussions were held between Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, and two regional Chinese commanders responsible for forces near Taiwan.
The talks addressed contentious issues, particularly Taiwan. General Zhang reaffirmed that confrontation over Taiwan is a red line that must not be crossed, and he called on the U.S. to stop military cooperation with Taiwan and halt arms sales and false narratives about the island. The talks also failed to reach an agreement on the South China Sea amid renewed clashes between China and the Philippines and Chinese incursions into Japanese airspace. However, the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to supporting its allies and ensuring the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Sullivan also urged China to cease its military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, particularly its contributions to Russia’s defense industrial base and dual-use technologies.
Discussing Trade and Technology Cooperation: Both sides agreed to hold a second round of dialogue on artificial intelligence. While the White House statement noted Sullivan’s continued expression of U.S. concerns about China’s trade policies and non-market economic practices, Wang called on the U.S. to stop suppressing China in trade, economics, and technology, warning that U.S. reliance on trade protectionism mechanisms would only harm global green development and impact global economic growth.
Agreement on Deepening Communication: Both sides agreed to maintain high-level exchanges and communications at various levels and continue cooperation in areas such as combating drug trafficking, law enforcement, repatriation of illegal immigrants, and addressing climate change. U.S. and Chinese trade officials are set to meet in China on September 7, 2024, where China’s International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will meet with U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Marisa Lago. Additionally, Senior Advisor to the U.S. President on International Climate Policy John Podesta is scheduled to meet with China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change Liu Zhenmin in early September.
Promoting Kamala Harris: During his meeting with Chinese officials, Sullivan sought to reassure Chinese decision-makers by hinting that if Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris assumes the presidency, it would lead to responsible management of bilateral relations rather than a hostile trajectory, alluding to concerns about the potential return of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump to office.
Sullivan highlighted Harris’s role in shaping U.S. foreign policy and strategies related to America’s role in the Indo-Pacific, noting that she shares President Biden’s approach to managing U.S.-China competition responsibly to prevent it from escalating into conflict.
In connection with the U.S. elections, concerns about potential Chinese interference were raised. China avoided commenting on the U.S. elections and did not express any preference for either candidate. U.S. intelligence estimates downplay the threat of Chinese interference in cyberspace compared to the roles played by Russia and Iran.
Meeting with the Chinese President: The meeting, held at the Great Hall of the People, took place in a cordial atmosphere where both sides praised the trajectory of bilateral relations despite underlying tensions and disagreements. The traditional friendship between the two countries was also highlighted. President Xi’s central message was his hope that the U.S. would view China’s development positively, ensuring that bilateral relations proceed responsibly, contributing to global peace and shared development. Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of U.S.-China relations, while Sullivan conveyed President Biden’s vision for managing bilateral ties to avoid conflict and serve common interests.
The two sides discussed ways to implement the commitments made by the two presidents at their November 2023 summit, including in areas such as counter-narcotics, military communications, AI safety, the Taiwan Strait, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the South China Sea. Both sides welcomed ongoing efforts to keep communication channels open, including plans for a presidential phone call in the coming weeks.
Reaffirming China’s Red Lines: China’s priority in these talks was to stress that Taiwan, internal matters including democracy, human rights, the right to development, China’s rise, and its engagement with the global system are Beijing’s four red lines in relations with the U.S. Violating any of these could push relations toward a breaking point.
Multiple implications:
In this context, it is worth noting some of the implications these conversations carry, which can be summarized as follows:
Shaping Biden’s Legacy: This is in light of assessments linking the visit to the U.S. elections and Biden’s efforts to maintain calm in relations and avoid conflict, while anticipation grows over the future of these relations after the elections. Should Biden succeed in this mission and conclude his political career with a meeting with President Xi, it could greatly enhance his legacy and approach to foreign policy. China may also benefit from this by establishing a conciliatory pattern in relations, which could limit the opportunities for tension under the new U.S. administration.
Potential Flashpoints for Conflict: Despite the agreements reached on resuming talks in areas such as artificial intelligence, climate, and military cooperation, the positive outcomes of these talks should not be overstated. They remain preliminary discussions that still require much work to build upon. Both sides failed to reach understandings or arrangements on the most contentious issues, such as Ukraine, the South China Sea, and Taiwan. Additionally, the rivalry over technological dominance and advanced technologies continues to intensify. Both parties maintain their stance on this issue, with Sullivan reaffirming the need to take necessary steps to prevent the use of advanced American technologies in undermining U.S. national security. Some reports even suggest that the Biden administration is preparing new measures that would further restrict the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment from certain foreign countries to Chinese chipmakers.
Chinese Perception of the U.S. Approach as a Reality: China’s response to U.S. moves reflects its understanding that U.S. policy toward China is difficult to alter and must be adapted to, particularly concerning American characterizations of China’s role, which Beijing considers inaccurate. However, China has come to accept and engage with these perceptions, working to correct them and reach agreements without confrontation or cutting communication channels with the U.S., as it had in the past. Now, China is focused on responsibly managing the relationship to protect its economic interests tied to the U.S.
In conclusion, this round of talks can be seen as a continuation of both sides’ efforts to maintain communication channels and avoid conflict, especially during this transitional period leading up to the U.S. presidential elections, after which the direction of U.S. foreign policy toward China will become clearer. However, dialogue mechanisms alone are insufficient to resolve the deep-seated disagreements, which could flare up at any moment, especially regarding the issues of Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the race over advanced technology.
